Seetec says stable housing, health support and routes into work are critical to reducing reoffending and easing pressure on the system
Seetec has welcomed the Government’s focus on addressing pressure in the prison estate in Budget 2025, and called for continued, cross-government action on prevention, rehabilitation and resettlement so that fewer people enter the system, and fewer return.
Seetec’s analysis of Budget 2025 measures alongside recent Ministry of Justice statistics highlights the scale of the challenge. The latest proven reoffending data shows an overall reoffending rate of 28.3%, around 23,000 people in a three-month period, going on to commit a proven reoffence (Source: MOJ: Proven reoffending statistics: October to December 2023 (published 30 Oct 2025)). Separately, the MoJ’s prison population projections indicate a central estimate of 100,800 by March 2029 (Source: MOJ: Prison Population Projections: 2024 to 2029 (5 Dec 2024)).
Additional prison places can provide vital operational breathing space, but more immediate and lasting improvement depends on reducing the “flow” into custody by strengthening the foundations that make desistance possible: stable housing, health and wellbeing support, employment pathways and skills.
Seetec highlighted that some of the most practical prevention and resettlement levers in Budget 2025 sit outside the justice system, because they shape day-to-day stability. These include measures to reduce the Housing Benefit “cliff edge” in supported and temporary accommodation, stronger tailored employment support for people with health conditions and disabilities, and funded routes into paid work placements and training and skills reforms. Seetec says that, implemented well and joined up locally, these changes can help prevent exclusion becoming crisis and crisis becoming crime.
We welcome the Government’s commitment to stabilising the system. Capacity matters for safety and continuity. But the long-term release valve is reducing reoffending by making sure people leave custody with the basics in place. Prevention alongside capacity: a safe place to live, support for health needs, and a realistic route into sustained work. That’s how you reduce excessive demand on prisons and probation, and build safer communities.
Amy Rice, Director of Communities and Education (which includes Justice Services) at Seetec
Seetec also emphasised the importance of protecting frontline continuity as efficiency measures are developed across government. The organisation said that if savings fall on the frontline basics, such as Through-the-Gate continuity, probation supervision, and securing IDs, housing and healthcare at release, the system risks postponing demand rather than reducing it, with higher costs later through recalls, homelessness, health crises and repeat harm.
